Why Kosovo should fear Trump
*I did this article for Sbunker but their donor doesn’t allow pieces criticizing US domestic politics. So I leave it here as a bonus post for you.*
For Kosovo, the US presidential election will be more momentous than any other in history.
Kosovo Albanians seem to be very confident in thinking that no matter who wins US support for Kosovo will always remain. Indeed, statements from the US Ambassador continue to underline US support for the Kosovo project as long as it remains multiethnic.
Kosovo Serbs seem to be almost unified in desperately hoping for a Donald Trump win despite Trump being a convicted felon, rapist, coup leader, grifter and as his own ex-chief of staff put it, a fascist. The belief, fostered by statements against prime minister Albin Kurti, from Trump’s presumed pick to run the State Department, Richard Grenell, indulge the fantasy that Trump will get Kurti and his alleged police violence and overreach out of the north and Serbian areas across Kosovo. In fact, it may escalate the violence.
Both groups are wrong. A Trump win will destroy Kosovo as it is now. Grennell, who has financial interests in both Serbia and Albania is closely aligned with both Serbian President Vučić and Albanian President Rama. Grennell has made his antipathy to Kurti resoundingly clear and there is no reason to assume he won’t take extreme measures against Kosovo, including cutting aid budgets further or altogether; removing US troops from KFOR to revoking US recognition, depending on how soon he could get that through congress, which would not be long as Kurti has angered both foreign policy Republicans and Democrats.
It’s also important to remember that Trump would have allies on the Kosovo issue in the EU particularly with the EU six non recognizers, Hungary and Italy; with possibly Poland, France and the Netherlands pulling their support.
Grennell has a terrible reputation, is incompetent at understanding diplomacy, international law and agreements and can’t manage diplomatic relationships. When I interviewed people about him for a profile during the first Trump administration, his colleagues in the US and the EU noted his lack of depth, nasty temper and hostility towards women.
If Kosovo is so undermined that it is even more isolated and without strong allies in Europe, the situation will become extremely problematic. Kosovo can’t go back to Serbia and is barred from joining Albania. It would become an unstable state with increasingly violent ethnic tensions.
This leaves everyone in Kosovo in the middle of a deep, horrific mess that the Trump administration will not clean up but simply blame on the Europeans for not managing their backyard.
EU officials, on background, have said that the Union could replace US troops with further troops from the EUFOR mission in Bosnia to keep Kosovo stable. But that merely holds of the inevitable as it’s viability as a state diminishes.
However, it is also likely that the EU will use a harsher Trump administration to take a harder line on Kosovo and force it to concede in the Dialogue.
Kurti is already in an isolated and weakened position abroad and has managed to alienate staunch friends like Germany who is likely reconsidering its support for Kosovo within the regional economic initiative the Berlin Process and Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA). Kosovo agreed to lift the blockade on Serbian products for continued access and self- representation at CEFTA and participation in the Berlin Process.
However, Serbian products are still - two weeks later - not on Kosovo shelves as border delays, at the one border open to Serbian products, have made shipments slow to a crawl. As a result, it is unlikely that EU sanctions will be lifted and they may be increased with the possibility of a suspension from the EU’s Growth Fund.
Domestically, Kurti will surely increase his popularity as he takes on Trump and Grennell in his fight for Kosovo. He will be popular with his base and the diaspora who do not live with the effects of his policies. However this will end up with people in Kosovo losing and leaving, especially the Serb community.
Once there is no significant Serbian community in Kosovo there is no need for Serbia to honor any agreement or continue any Dialogue with Kosovo. Which means no NATO, EU, Council of Europe or UN membership; further recognitions, memberships international or regional will all be lost.
This, contrary to many in the government, academic, think tankers and online pundits is why Dialogue must continue and a final agreement for the Serb community is vital for Kosovo.
What of Kamala Harris? It’s likely she will hue closely to the Biden strategy so far but she may end up being more energetic in getting Kosovo and Serbia to the table and closer to normalization. The US and EU positions have been described - by officials from both - as “lockstep.”
The EU has said it is willing to simply wait out Kurti. Harris may decide to do the same; she is a very pragmatic politician as seen by her shifts from tough prosecutor, a progressive leftist and finally to the feminist center for this campaign. Few will cast a vote based on Kosovo - US relations and Harris will see it as very much a side issue as Ukraine, Israel - Gaza, Haiti, Sudan are far more urgent. It may be ideal for the US to simply stay in lockstep with the EU and let the Europeans take the lead, even if that means just stepping aside until Kurti goes, however long that will take..
Kosovo has no other allies other than the West. Unlike Serbia there is no pivot to the East or a lithium mine or an arms industry able to supply Ukraine. Kurti’s policy of being willing to alienate and exasperate both the US and Europe, for short term political gain may turn out to be very detrimental in the long run. But people - from all communities - living in Kosovo are the ones who will really suffer for what is essentially a poorly devised strategy on behalf of the government that left Kosovo with sanctions, isolation, weakened security and on the brink of interethnic violence that is simply waiting for another irresponsible leader to set it afire.